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SPECULATIONS ABOUT CONGRESS’ FATE IN 2014

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Speculations are on these days as to what is likely to happen in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, ordinarily scheduled to take place in 2014. 

 

A fortnight back Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh hosted a Dinner in honour of outgoing Rashtrapati Smt. Pratibha Devisingh Patil. The function was held at Hyderabad House. 

 

In an informal chat with two senior Cabinet Ministers before the formal dinner, I could clearly perceive an intense sense of concern weighing on the minds of both these Ministers. Their apprehensions were as follows :

 

a)     In the Sixteenth Elections to the Lok Sabha, neither the Congress nor the BJP    may be able to forge an alliance which has a clear majority in the Lok Sabha. 

b)     In 2013 or 2014, therefore, whenever the Lok Sabha elections take place, the Government likely to take shape can be that of the Third Front. This, according to the Congress Ministers would be extremely harmful not only for the stability of Indian politics but also for national interests. 

 

My response to the anxiety voiced by these Congressmen was: I can understand your concern, but I do not share it.  My own view is:

 

i)        The shape which national polity has acquired in the past two and a half decades makes it practically impossible for any government to be formed in New Delhi which does not have the support either of the Congress or of the BJP.  A third Front Government, therefore, can be ruled out.

ii)      A non-Congress, non-BJP Prime Minister heading a government supported by one of these two principal parties is however feasible. This has happened in the past also.

 

But, as the Prime Ministership of Ch. Charan Singh, Chandrashekharji, Deve Gowdaji and Inder Kumar ji Gujral (all supported by Congress) as also of Vishwanath Pratap Singhji (supported by BJP) have shown, such governments have never lasted long.

 

iii)    There has been stability at the Centre only when the Government has had either a Congress or a BJP Prime Minister. Unfortunately, the two Governments since 2004, U.P.A I and U.P.A II have both been so badly mismanaged that the current state of anxiety in the ruling establishment is quite understandable.

 

People generally believe that for the Congress Party, the worst phase in so far as Lok Sabha results are concerned, were the post-Emergency elections of 1977. It would not at all be surprising if the next Lok Sabha elections yield a result which for the Congress may prove the worst in its history since 1952.

 

Soothsayers are not wanting who predict that it may be the first time when the Congress Party’s score sinks to just two digits, that is, less than one hundred !

 

The party’s miserable performance in Rae Bareilly, Amethi etc. which have long been regarded as pocket-boroughs of the first family, in the U.P. Assembly polls held recently and its dismal record in the Corporation elections of Uttar Pradesh where as against the BJP’s score of ten out of twelve Corporations, the Congress drew a big blank are clear indices of the party’s collapsing fortunes.

 

So far as the BJP is concerned, the bungling in Karnataka notwithstanding, all recent public opinion surveys clearly reveal that the principal beneficiary of the Congress Party’s fast eroding reputation continues to be the BJP !

***

India attained independence in 1947. For the first two decades, the country’s politics was dominated totally by the Congress Party. The Freedom Struggle was waged under the banner of the Congress which was more like an umbrella organization. Naturally both at the Centre, as well as in most of the States it was Congress that was ruling.

 

As the chart of Election results published here shows, the first time that Congress lost control of the Union Government was in 1977, when the Janata Party defeated the Congress. Shri Morarji Bhai Desai assumed office as Prime Minister, and Shri Vajpayee became his External Affairs Minister.

 

Post-1977, politics underwent a rapid transformation. In 1980, after the launching of the BJP, this party systematically undertook a two-pronged approach to accomplish this transformation. The first prong was aimed at smashing the hegemony of the Congress Party, and the second prong was targeted at building the BJP not only as a powerful national party but also in states where it already had a stature with great potential.

 

Smt. Gandhi’s assassination at the hands of terrorists in 1984 and the powerful sympathy wave this tragedy generated in favour of Rajiv Gandhi made that year’s election a unique election for both the ruling party as well as the principal opposition.

 

Number of Lok Sabha Seats won in Elections:

 

Year

Congress

 

BJS-Janata-BJP

1952

364

3 (BJS)

1957

371

4 (BJS)

1962

361

14 (BJS)

1967

283

35 (BJS)

1971

352

23 (BJS)

1977

154

295 (Janata)

1980

353

31 (Janata)

1984

415

2 (BJP)

1989

197

86 (BJP)

1991

232

120 (BJP)

1996

140

161(BJP)

1998

141

182(BJP)

1999

114

182 (BJP)

2004

145

138 (BJP)

2009

206

116 (BJP)

The Congress Party under Rajiv scored an all time record securing 415 seats and our party also got a record low of TWO SEATS in the whole country! This serious setback however goaded us to pursue the two-pronged strategy we had drawn up with greater vigour and determination than ever before and in just within fifteen years – 1984 to 1999 – we actually transformed the single party dominant polity into a bipolar polity.

 

The U.P.A. Government of Dr. Manmohan Singh has failed to take along with his government even his allies. The U.P.A. II has had one aide however who may not be a political aide but who has been so invaluable for it to manage these difficult allies that I have often described it as the Congress Party’s most dependable ally. If the Congress has successfully avoided a Lok Sabha poll till now it is only because of this alliance partner – the C.B.I. !

 

L.K. Advani

New Delhi

5 August, 2012

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28 Responses to “SPECULATIONS ABOUT CONGRESS’ FATE IN 2014”

  1. lav.kochgaway Says:

    Dear sir,

    Nice to know about your views on this. But the biggest concern of common people in India is that BJP has not provided them good enough reason for them to rely on it as an alternative to Congress. I agree that people are fed up of Congress and want an alternative. But who is the candidate for PM from BJP. If it is you, then you would be almost 90 by the time we head for the next election. So we don’t look upon you as the potential candidate. Apart from you, the only leader in BJP, who is a PM material is Narendra Modi. None of the other leaders have the charisma or track record on which people can look upto with hope. Are you ready to take the risk of projecting Mr Modi? - Then probably there would be no NDA - BJP alone would have to get the majority. Any other candidate projected by BJP, doesn’t look good enough to lead the country. On the other hand there are leaders of regional party like Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik who have great leadership qualities to lead.

  2. lav.kochgaway Says:

    I fear that the country is heading for a severe leadership crisis - with both BJP and Congress not having any leader fit to be PM! In this churning - the best option then would be convert to presidential form of Govt, where the leader is directly chosen by the people. Good leaders in both national parties end up making their own regional parties and hold onto their states. That leaves only pseudoleaders at the national level, who are instrumental in not allowing the regional leaders in Delhi. Everyone is looking after their own interests!!!

  3. sourabhsharma Says:

    Totally agreeable analysis. Most likely its a very strong hint for Nitish to lift himself at the national level, as he has the maximum chance of being a consensus candidate. With a clean, progressive and secular image and with the with power shift from centre to state, the chance will brighten further.

    With the regional forces in mind and the coming state elections, neither BJP nor Congress is daring to question any of the local biggies, as you never know what can be a possible permutation in 2014 elections. Nitish has no baggage of his own party. From Jaylalita to Navin everybody will support + either left or Mamta will support…with BJP backing him…it will not be difficult ride for him…

  4. VivekShukla Says:

    Respected Sir,
    I am a very big fan of yours.
    Your decisions,your contribution to Indian political system,your instant decision making power and your honest opinions about the discrepancies in the society. You are an IRON MAN for me.
    I truly respect you like my own father as my father has always been an admirer of your work and thinking.
    I have been brought up with a mental setup of favoring you and you only.
    INDIAN POLITICS is nothing without you.

    I am not saying all this because of joining your party or anything,its just that i have always respected you and i will always respect you irrespective of any allegation against you.
    You may trust me like your own son.
    I love my country and i love you because our country will be handicapped without your leadership like it is nowadays.
    I would be glad to get a call from you if you ever need any assistance from me or my family

    Regards
    Vivek Shukla
    Chandigarh
    +91-9815993033 (Father)

  5. damanjeetsingh Says:

    Young supporters of BJP (under 35) are exclusively Modi supporters. BJP’s party workers & workers of its sister organizations are also staunch supporter of Narendra Modi. If BJP doesn’t project Narendra Modi as Prime Ministerial candidate for upcoming lok sabha elections, it is going to lose badly. If Nitish Kumar wants to go let him go. They (JDU) cannot survive without BJP. People of India are looking for a strong leader & a party with strong committed leadership. BJP must give them hope. Lack of leadership is not going to help anyway (for an instance : UP). BJP leaders must take care of their party & their voters first & rest will come by itself.

  6. ksatyam Says:

    To me this post appears to be “a balanced assessment of the present political scenario keeping in mind the historical facts”.

    I fail to understand why media is creating all this fuss. May be they wish to save some money/time and resources. The debate on this topic on several news channels were annoying and frustrating. switching channels did not help as most of the channels were airing this same topic in their prime time.

  7. dev.mishra Says:

    Adarniya Advani ji . Saadar naman.
    aap jaise mahaamana dwaara sampreshit vichardhara ka ek chhota sipaahi , bas itna hi kahna chahta hoon.
    swapna me bhi ho vijay toh
    rashtra ki ho , desh ki ho .
    aise digdarshan se to fir ,
    neend bhi kaanto bhari ho.

    Desh ko aaj ek dadhichi , ki aavashyakataa hai , parantu durbhaagya vas kali ka prabhaav prabal hai. vajra ban nahi paa raha , asuron ka naash nahi ho paa raha. sangathan ka sheersha netritva aaj ek mat ho , ek swar ho , ek aatma ho , ek vijay ghosh ka naad de , naam kisi kaa bhi ho , aawaaz Laal krishna advaani ji ki ho. Desh adhunik lauh purush se speculation nahi vajra sa aadesh chahta hai, jisme desh ka hit ho, sangathan ka hit ho , rashtra ka nirmaan ho. samay rahte udghosh kijiyega. warna kal itihaas aapse bahut prasna pucchega.

  8. Ravipanchal919 Says:

    A legend of BJP - Shri L K Advani Ji,

    Every time we think about L K Advani as Prime Minister of India but every time we failed. I don’t know why - People doesn’t support a true legend who did many things for India and it’s people. I’m Thankful to http://www.iwoob.com/ which gives me time to time update for every news from all over the world!..

    Here i just wanna say one thing to people.. plzz support Shri L K Advani Ji - Fututre Prime Minister of India

    Congress is Corrupt but the game is over now!..

  9. harikrishan123 Says:

    A good post with balanced and realistic approach (which is missing nowadays in politics). This post shows the confidence of assessing the situation right and then taking perfect action to ensure optimum output/result for BJP at right time.
    Media has behaved as an irresponsible stakeholder in this case (in my opinion).

    Thanks.
    Harikrishan Verma

  10. Mrinal Kumar Says:

    Advaniji, Namaskar,
    Please project Modiji for the next Prime Minister of India and you ‘ll definately win the race. Just think what ‘ll BJP loss . It is the BJP’s last chance to win the race.
    Earlier I worked with one corporate insurance broker , it has around 500 branches all over india and almost in all branches I have my friends. Once I started a survey about “The best Prime Ministrial candidate” and i got Modiji’s name.
    It is for BJP’s shake that BJP must project Modiji as Prime Ministrial candidate.
    There are some hurdles in the road but BJP must overcome . You also overcome from the same.
    At this time BJP need your strong guide.
    Please dont hear your surroundings please hear your grass root party workers . They ‘ll be the wining heroes for your next victory.
    Regards,
    Mrinal

  11. sbhatwar Says:

    Respected Sir, With due respects to your commentary on the forthcoming political situation during 2014 general elections and thereafter, I agree with the fact that there is popular discontent with the Central Government but where is the alternative to the current ruling dispensation? Is the BJP and its allies (NDA) in a position to provide an alternative to the current ruling dispensation? The infighting in the BJP and Mr. Narendra Modi’s eagerness to project himself as the PM candidate for NDA will surely put off voters from choosing NDA. Though, there is a great deal of support to Mr. Narendra Modi within Gujarat, outside of Gujarat he will not score much with the general masses. Mr. Jaitley, Ms. Swaraj, Mr. Gadkari and the rest of the current lot of leaders believe that they are all potential prime ministerial candidates in their own right. It is time the NDA leaders get their act together and project Mr. Nitish Kumar as the PM candidate.

  12. Partha Says:

    Adarniya Advaniji, please please..
    Do not talk on behalf of Sushma Swaraj, Ananth kumar etc. they are massless leaders and yet Want to be PM and CM respectively. the matter of fact is that we are at danger of finishing under 100 seats if, we project Mrs Swaraj (with Nitish in ambush), albiet with narendra Modi being Projected as Pm candidate, we have chance of crossing 190-200 seats on our own.
    Why are you forgetting that you are the original Hindu hriday Samrat. and when time has come that your own protege , Narendra Modi is going to fulfill your unacomplished task. You, for some emotional bonds , singing the tunes of mrs Swaraj which is very dis-heartening for BJP lovers.
    People Voted for BJP in 90’s not because they wanted good Governace( 95% of Indians are indifferent to Governance), it was all beacuse of Hindutva , voting was polarized and we can only gain when voters are polarized, which only possible either under Original Hindu hriday Samrat (You) or Current HHS(Modi).

  13. alagarsamy1256 Says:

    Respected Advaniji
    i enjoyed your posting…in fact you area great Leader of India..i still remember how humble you were in Brindavan Express in 1980s …i travelled in AC Chaircar with you…
    you are so elegant and soft …and still i remember how you were as Indias Minister for I &b…
    I worked under you Shri Advaniji..
    you are 100 % correct to forecast that 2014 elections Congress will not get even 50 seats…
    it is like this
    Tamilnadu…1
    AP…zero
    Karnataka 3
    kerala5
    Mp…3
    UP 5
    Bihar 3
    and rest in India 25
    so i will forecast they will loose very heavily…
    Iama politician in my blood since i was Dr Anna and Later with Dr MGr and
    now with Dr Jayalalithaaji

    BJP will geta chance ….
    Congress will be punished for their corruption in 2 G and killing 50 thosansd Tamils in Srilanka
    God will punish Congress and DMK
    alagarsamy
    in 2014

  14. prasadbakshi Says:

    A true party with difference - BJP!!!
    There is no party in India in past 65 years who could ever even attempted to show such stunning performance.
    BJP has given leaders to this country like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Narendra Modi who had delivered to the people within same system.
    After Mahatma Gandhi, it was only Atal Bihari Vajpayee who recieved acceptance from all sect, cast, segment, class from people of India.
    It was only Narendra modi after Atal Bihari Vajpayee who could deliver free n fair non corrupt government for a decade with outstanding performance.
    A turmoil can certainly be seen in such party where democracy truly implemented. Infact a turmoil is true sign of free n fair democracy which fortunately still exists in BJP.
    And based on the proven performance and graph of BJP, there is no doubt this party is going to revive. BJP is standing on the blessings o Pt. Deendayal Upadhyaya assuars that it can not fail

  15. ambrishnigam Says:

    Sir, All these years I was disappointed that even with very many legends in BJP, U, Mr. Bajpayee, Ms. Sushma, Mr. Jaswant Singh, Mr, Yashwant Sinha, Mr. Jately, Late Mr. Pramod Mahajan, Mr. Govind Acharya, the list is enermous… and space constraint at your blog site, still the BJP delivered far lower to the expectations of the people of India.

    this is the “Non satiation Principle of Economics”. If we expect a bulb from Congress it will be too much & expect Sun from BJP.

    But with Ramdev Baba & Mr. Anna, I see a hope for tomorrow.

    I acknowledge that the main concern of Congress to Protect Nehru Gandhi family for their quest of weak LOKPAL. What was the concern of NDA.. it has Nitish, Bala Saheb, Mr. Naidu and many. Please bring back Mr. Govindachraya to BJP’s thinktank. Get rid of Rajnath Singh, I again warn you.

  16. caanandkhokharia Says:

    Advani sir me yeh manta tu ki 2014 ME NDA KA AANA FIX HAI AUR YEH BHI MANTA HU KI APKA BLOG MEDIA NE GALAT TARIKE SE PRESENT KIYA MERI RAI ME NDA KE SABHI PARTY KO EK SATH DESH BHAR ME PARIVARTAN YATRA NIKALNI CHAIYE SATH HI MAHILA MORCHA , YUVA MORCHA SABHI KO SATH LEKE.

    BJP KO ABHI PRIME MINISTER KA NAME DELARE NAHI KARNA CHAIYE AISA PAHLE KABHI NAHI HUA HAI CONGRESS NE BHI AISA NAHI KIYA.

  17. saif Says:

    Sir.. I am saif … 20 yr old guy from Madhya Pradesh…
    The last incident in Lok Sabha where you took ur word back “illegitimacy” under the pressure of Mrs Gandhi.

    You are the powerful Member of Lok Sabha… Why you took ur word back.?

  18. gsswamy Says:

    L.K.Advani sir your words are truely transparent and I support many aspects of your address of your blog. I just want to add small note how many leaders are left they think the true development of country. Are we going in right direction everybody knows who is controlling is there any end to this.

  19. priya.sharma Says:

    आडवानी सर NDA फिर से वापस आएगी , और नरेन्द्र मोदी जी का नाम अगर प्रधान मंत्री पद के लिए रखा जाये तब | आज हमारे देश के युवा नरेन्द्र जी का प्रधानमंत्री के रूप में देखना चाहता है ,आप ज़मीनी स्तर पर लोगों की भावनाएं समझे न की पार्टियों की भावनाओं को , देश की जरुरत हैं नरेन्द्र मोदी | भारतीये संस्कृति के साथ जो अन्याय हो रहा है वो नरेन्द्र मोदी ही सुधार सकतें हैं ,इस मामले में शायाद NDA के दुसरे नेता जैसे (नितीश कुमार ) वो काम नहीं कर सकते |

  20. adityajn02 Says:

    sir, its time to declare your prime minister narendra bhai modi. to win the 2014 elections . people want someone with guts & courage as their prime minister. well you do the same job sonia is doing is better for you and your party & for country. otherwise if you name your self as prime minister as earlier. i tell you one thing history repeats itself. so make a decision now.

  21. ameyashtavadhani Says:

    This seems to be a very logical and simple article , not sure why we have this hue and cry in the media. I do agree with your thoughts and am supportive of the idea of an NDA government lead by Narendra Modi till the time they don’t indulge in minority appeasement and end up another congress.

  22. bonagiri Says:

    Dear Sir,
    Happy Independence Day.
    It is high time that we need a strong and stable government at centre for a better growth rate and national interests. Is it not possible to avoid regional parties from participating in the Lok sabha elections? If only national parties are allowed contest for Lok Sabha, people may elect one of the parties with a clear majority or at least a simple coalition can be formed latter.

  23. worried.indian Says:

    1/2 –

    I am not sure if this comment is viewed by people reporting to Mr. Advani - but I hope it does get to him.
    I am a 28 year old India residing in Maharashtra and am really worried for what is happening to the country.

    I am a staunch BJP / NDA supporter because I have seen visible and rapid change happening when the Vajpayee government was in the center - things that hadn’t happened from years since independence with the Congress government.

    I have voted a couple of times since I have been able to in Lokpal elections for BJP - but I am disheartened with the results everytime. I really feel that this time is your best chance and a BJP led government coming to power will provide the tourniquet that the country needs from bleeding dry.

    However, personally, what I hear from time to time in the media with the state of affairs at BJP / NDA, it does not bring me *real* confidence that BJP will definitely come to power (I really hope so - but am not at all sure).

    – comment follows –

  24. worried.indian Says:

    2/2 -

    For everyone living in India, I hope and pray that BJP gets its act together and portrays itself as a strong, united party with a clear leader (Mr. Advani / Mr. Modi).

  25. muslimbhagawat Says:

    Whenever election to the country declared all Oppn must be combined just they did duing the 1977 election after emergency and thrown the Indira regime out.All Hindus sants sadhvis Baba Swami should unitedly invoke the hindu voters to save hindutve by voting out an anti-hindu and pro-muslim,pr-christain party congress out from india fro all times.The BJP need to have strengthened its base by a pure hindu out look and remove all the impediments like JDU and nitish Kumar who are obstacles in taking a Hindutva Path.BJP must note that all parties are against it and noen wants to side with it as they fear that muslims Christians wont vote for them.

  26. muslimbhagawat Says:

    The way Congress behaved with 205 seats in LS only with a support of regional parties the action taken by it shows that if he would have a simple majority of 272 seats in LS then he would have changed the course of Indian history by declaring Sonia alltime monarch and President of India and her Son as Ruler in chief of India.Still she has done what it cant ever think of with a blackmailed pliable partners who succumbed to her blackmail thru CBI and gain support.It is to be noted that she allowed them to carry on blatant corruption and kept their files of corruption hidden with her so that she blackmail them.I think beneficiary are NCP DMK MIM IUML in the biggest loot of india since 2004.

  27. Krant M.L.Verma Says:

    श्री अडवाणीजी ने ब्लॉग में गलत क्या कहा जो मीडिया में इतनी हाय तौबा !!मित्रो! मैं श्री अडवाणी जी के तर्क से शत प्रतिशत सहमत हूँ उन्होंने आँकड़े देकर भारतीय जनसंघ से लेकर वर्तमान जनता पार्टी तक के सांसदों की लोकसभा में बढ़तीं हुई लोकप्रियता को उल्लेखनीय सिद्ध भी किया है और भावी चुनाव में उसकी उपादेयता की ओर संकेत भी.

    अभी २०१४ के चुनाव में सवा साल शेष है यदि अडवाणीजी कृष्ण की तरह भाजपा के मार्गदर्शक सारथी बनकर नयी भूमिका में जनता के समक्ष जाएँ तो मुझे पूर्ण विश्वास है कि अगला प्रधानमंत्री भाजपा का ही बन सकता है एक वार बहुसंख्यक समाज को उत्साहित करने की आवश्यकता है.

    डॉ.मदनलाल वर्मा ‘क्रान्त’
    http://krantmlverma.blogspot.in/

  28. Ravipanchal919 Says:

    BJP - Shri L K Advani Ji, A True Hero!

    Every time we think this time L K Advani will become Prime Minister of India but every time we failed. I don’t know why - People doesn’t support him who did many things for India and Indians. But This time I’m Sure Congress will never come back!.. Support to BJP..

    Here i just wanna say one thing to people.. plzz support Shri L K Advani Ji - Fututre Prime Minister of India

    Congress - Your Game z Over!..

    Regards,

    Ravi Panchal
    http://www.MovieVatika.com.com/

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